← Phantom's Monarch Set Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Phantom's Monarch Set Championship
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296
· median 1296
· range 1233–1358
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1202
Q3 1353
1484
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Chess | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
